Despite going 9-3 overall, unbeaten in league play and winning the United Athletic Conference last season, Austin Peay football was picked to finish fifth out of nine teams in the UAC preseason coaches poll.
Chalk it up to a plethora of unknowns. With a new coach, Jeff Faris, and a retooled roster, the Governors are a bit of a mystery headed into 2024. But that's the case for several of their opponents, too.
Can APSU return to the FCS playoffs in Faris's first season? The Leaf-Chronicle took a stab at predicting each of the Govs' 12 regular-season games, including seven at Fortera Stadium.
Aug. 31 at Louisville
Time: 11 a.m., ACC Network
The Cardinals, who went 10-4 and reached the ACC Championship Game in coach Jeff Brohm's first season, were picked by the media to finish fifth in the conference. While they had to replace most of their skill position talent on offense, they've reloaded with Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough at quarterback, Miami transfer Donald Chaney Jr. at running back and Alabama transfer Ja'Corey Brooks at wide receiver. Louisville returns more on defense, headlined by All-ACC first team defensive end Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks in 2023) and leading tackler T.J. Quinn. The Cardinals also add defensive tackle Thor Griffith, a first team FCS All-American at Harvard last season.
Prediction: Louisville 42, Austin Peay 7
Sept. 7 vs. Southern Illinois
Time: 6 p.m., ESPN+
Coming off a season in which it went 8-5 and reached the FCS playoffs, Southern Illinois was picked to finish fourth in the Missouri Valley Conference, widely regarded as the top league in FCS. Nic Baker, the program's all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns, has graduated, but leading receiver Vinson Davis III is back as well as four starting offensive linemen. The Salukis return four starters from a defense that gave up 16.2 points per game in 2023, ranking fourth in FCS. They routed Austin Peay 49-23 in Carbondale to open the season.
Prediction: Southern Illinois 31, Austin Peay 17
Sept. 14 at Central Arkansas
Time: 6 p.m., ESPN+
The Govs' challenging start to the season continues at Central Arkansas, which was picked to win the league after finishing as runners-up in 2023. Quarterback Will McElvain, who threw 24 touchdowns to five interceptions, is back along with running back ShunDerrick Powell, who ran for 1,016 yards on 136 carries. Defensive end David Walker Jr., an All-American and the UAC Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, had 18 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. APSU beat the Bears 14-12 last season in a game which decided the conference championship.
Prediction: Central Arkansas 34, Austin Peay 14
Sept. 21 vs. Alabama A&M
Time: 6 p.m., ESPN+
Alabama A&M went 5-6 last season and was picked to finish fourth out of six teams in the SWAC East Division. The Bulldogs bring back their leading rusher (Donovan Eaglin) and leading receiver (Jacolby Hewitt) for an offense that averaged close to 30 points per game. Defensive back Emari Pait had four interceptions a season ago. The Govs played the Bulldogs in Huntsville two years ago, winning 28-3.
Prediction: Austin Peay 38, Alabama A&M 20
Sept. 28 vs. Southern Utah
Time: 1 p.m., ESPN+
Last season, Austin Peay traveled to Cedar City and escaped with a 48-45 double-overtime win. The Thunderbirds, who were picked third in the UAC, make the return trip without their all-time leading passer, Justin Miller, who graduated. They do return running backs Braedon Wissler and Targhee Lambson, who combined for over 1,000 yards in 2023. Defensively, All-UAC preseason picks Rylen Sua-Filo and Kohner Cullimore anchor a unit that held teams to just 106 rushing yards per game.
Prediction: Austin Peay 23, Southern Utah 21
Oct. 5 at West Georgia
Time: 1 p.m.
West Georgia, which is making its FCS debut, went 6-4 in Division II last season. It will have a new coach leading it into the UAC, former Mercer defensive coordinator Joel Taylor. The Wolves' main threat on offense appears to be Rajaez Mosley, who ran for 855 yards and averaged over seven yards per carry in 2023.
Prediction: Austin Peay 41, West Georgia 16
STORYLINES:What to know about Austin Peay football as Govs open 2024 season Aug. 31 at Louisville
ROSTER BREAKDOWN:Meet the new faces for Austin Peay football and coach Jeff Faris in 2024
Oct. 19 at Utah Tech
Time: 3 p.m., ESPN+
Utah Tech is coming off a 2-9 season and was picked to finish eighth in the conference this season, ahead of only West Georgia. Kobe Tracy was a bright spot, finishing third in the conference in passing, but has transferred to Idaho State. Lance Anderson, a former Stanford assistant under David Shaw, is the Trailblazers' first-year coach.
Prediction: Austin Peay 38, Utah Tech 17
Oct. 26 vs. Tarleton State
Time: 3 p.m., ESPN+
Tarleton State went 8-3 last season and was picked second in the UAC preseason coaches poll, receiving three first-place votes. Kayvon Britten, who ran for 1,150 yards and a conference-high 16 touchdowns, was named the UAC preseason offensive player of the year. Starting quarterback Victor Gabalis also returns, and he'll be throwing to Darius Cooper, who averaged over 20 yards per reception last season. The Texans are 1-0 after a Week Zero win over McNeese State.
Prediction: Tarleton State 35, Austin Peay 31
Nov. 2 at North Alabama
Time: 4 p.m.
The Lions, who lost 49-39 to APSU last season in Clarksville, fell 37-15 to Southeast Missouri State in their 2024 season opener. Picked seventh in the UAC, their defense is headlined by Edwin White Schultz, the conference's preseason player of the year on that side of the ball. White Schultz had 87 tackles a season ago.
Prediction: Austin Peay 29, North Alabama 16
Nov. 9 vs. Abilene Christian
Time: 3 p.m., ESPN+
Abilene Christian, which did not play APSU last season, was picked one spot behind the Govs in the preseason poll after a 6-5 campaign. Linebackers Cirby Coheley and Darius Moore and defensive back Elijah Moffett were named to the preseason All-UAC team, though the Wildcats gave up over 450 yards per game in 2023. Starting quarterback Maverick McIvor returns after throwing for 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Prediction: Austin Peay 35, Abilene Christian 28
Nov. 16 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Time: 1 p.m., ESPN+
The Colonels, longtime Ohio Valley Conference rivals of the Govs, lead this series 47-8. However, APSU has won four of the last six meetings and two consecutive, including a 33-30 overtime win in 2023. EKU was picked to finish fourth in the UAC, though it has to replace Parker McKinney, who led the conference in passing yards per game. Joshua Carter, who ran for 714 yards last season, is back, as is defensive back Mike Smith Jr. (11 pass breakups).
Prediction: Austin Peay 27, Eastern Kentucky 23
Nov. 23 vs. Chattanooga
Time: 1 p.m., ESPN+
Austin Peay closes out its season, and three-game homestand, with the team that ended its 2023 season on a walk-off field goal in the FCS playoffs. Chattanooga was picked to win the Southern Conference behind the conference's preseason defensive player of the year, Marlon Taylor (nine TFLs, 5.5 sacks). Quarterback Chase Artopoeus returns after throwing for 2,672 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Prediction: Chattanooga 30, Austin Peay 20
Austin Peay season prediction: 7-5 (6-2 UAC)
Jacob Shames can be reached by email at jshames@gannett.com and on Twitter @Jacob_Shames.
